Mild And Romance; Warmth Continues Into Thursday, February La Niña Develops Next Week



JAMESTOWN – It’s a nice Valentine’s Day across Western New York on the temperature bar, and that spring-like feeling continues into tomorrow. 

As we’ve been hinting at all week, models are coming closer together on a developing La Niña (a cooling of the Pacific waters near the Equator), which will swing weather patterns across North America in a complete 360, lasting likely, through the end of February.

This pattern flip will equate out to temperatures well above average across the Eastern half of North America, with much colder than average temperatures to the West.

How warm are talking about here? The two prime global forecast models we use, the American GFS and the European Ensembles, are in the same ballpark of upper 50s to a *possible* 60 by mid week next week.

Earlier model runs were trying to bring temperatures closer to 70 which, in my professional opinion, would have been quite the stretch to achieve that kind of warmth.

The newer guidance is trending temperatures a bit cooler than that, which is likely a bit more realistic.

HOWEVER, this all could still change between now and then.

First Defense Forecast: 

Today: Mostly cloudy. Peaks of sun are possible, leading to some partly cloudy skies at times, but sunshine will be limited. Mild, with above averages Highs of 44 at the lakeshore to 49 inland. Healthy Southwest wind 10 to 16 MPH.

Tonight: Developing rain showers. Some patchy fog is possible by morning, especially in areas along the river valley. Early Lows of 36 in the valleys to 39 at the lakeshore, rising into the mid 40s by dawn. South wind 7 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 40%.

Thursday: Scattered rain showers. Very mild, but breezy! Highs 50 to 58. Heathy West breeze of 11 to 17 MPH. Chance of rain 50%.

Friday: Rain and snow showers early, becoming all snow by the afternoon. Cooler, but still above average. High 38. Chance of precip 60%.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Still cool, but remains above average. High 37.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Milder. High 42.

Monday: Showers. Mostly cloudy intervals. Mild. High 51. Chance of rain 50%

Tuesday: Scattered showers. Mostly Cloudy. Milder. High 53. Chance of rain 60%

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