JAMESTOWN – Weeping and gnashing of teeth will be required this weekend, as we get set for an active weather pattern over the next 48 or so hours.
Saturday will be a “weather palooza” of all kinds of variables. Rain in the Southern Tier freezing rain to the north, with a 30+ degree temperature difference from south to north.
The potential exists for significant ice accumulation in the Niagara Frontier from a several hour period of freezing rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.
The unknown variable is, how much sleet will mix in. If there is more sleet, the ice accumulations will be held down. If it’s all freezing rain, that’s going to be an issue, as this will be a prolonged period of icing.
With that said, most computer models are showing ice totals over a half an inch for most spots from Buffalo to Rochester. That is very significant, if that verifies, and will likely lead to some problems.
Remember, it only takes a quarter of an inch of ice to start putting strain on trees and power lines.
We could get some freezing rain down in the Southern Tier later in the day on Saturday, as the stalled front starts to erode away, and allow some of the colder air to be dragged a bit southward.
The good news here is, there will be more sleet down in our direction, so ice accumulation will be minimal; like around a tenth of an inch.
That will still be enough to slicken up roads, so take it easy later on Saturday.
And then when we’re done with that, the concern shifts towards flooding issues for Sunday through Tuesday, as several rounds of widespread moderate to heavy rain works through the region.
Model guidance suggests total rainfall amounts over 3 inches for the 36 to 48-hour time period, which could easily cause flooding problems along creeks, rivers, and streams.