NOAA’s 5-Day Forecast For Florence Might Be The Best Ever Issued


NHC's forecast on Florence, issued 5 AM Sunday, Sep. 9.

MIAMI, FL – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center is tasked with issuing the official forecasts for all tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the Pacific. The forecast they issued for Hurricane Florence might very well be the most accurate forecast they have ever issued.

In a forecast that was issued at 5 a.m. EDT on Sunday, September 9, the NHC had a projected landfall location near Shell Island on the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Friday morning.

Florence officially made landfall around 8 a.m Friday, September 14 on Wrightsville Beach on the Outer Banks near Wilmington, NC, just two miles south of the projected landfall location.



Florence’s official landfall location compared to the NHC’s forecast landfall issued at 5 AM Sunday, Sep. 9

While the margin of error within the “cone of uncertainty” have gotten smaller in recent years due to advancements in numerical weather prediction, this is a huge feet as in a typical NHC 5-day forecast, the landfall location can be off as much as 250 miles.

That is an incredible testament for all the hard work the NHC puts into their products and services. A job well done.



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