JAMESTOWN – Keep those shades handy! High pressure remains parked over the region, and it won’t be moving anytime soon, continuing this stretch of gorgeous weather.
Most areas away from the imitate Lake Erie waterfront will be in the lower 80s on Friday with sunshine out in full force once again. The dew point values will also continue to remain down, between 50 and 55 degrees, which equates out to more human comfort. Humans begin to notice the ‘stickiness’ in the air when dew point temperatures reach 60, and anything over 70 is oppressive and down-right nasty.
Things will be changing come the Memorial Day Weekend; a soupy airmass will settle in across Western New York, bringing the humidity and that dreaded ‘stickiness’ back into atmosphere. Dew Points will be hanging out in the 60s all weekend long, with air temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
This type of environment is prime for, what we call, “airmass thunderstorms”. These kind of thunderstorms are a forecast nightmare, due to the randomized nature in which they pop up. Localized atmospheric instability, combined with sunshine during the peak hours of daytime heating, is the petrol needed to fire these short-lived showers and storms during the afternoon and early evening hours.
None of the days will be a total washout; there will be hours of fantastic sunshine each and every day. Just keep in mind that, at times, you will be dogging these scattered showers and storms, and understand that we, as forecasters, cannot tell you exactly where and when it will rain; when it starts, when it stops. While I wouldn’t cancel any barbecues or beach trips for the holidays weekend, just make sure you have a radar app handy on your smartphone or tablet, and keep your eyes on the radar.
Continuing To Monitor “Invest 90L” For Tropical Development: The National Hurricane Center keeps their eyes on our little tropical disturbance located just off the Yucatan Peninsula in the Caribbean. The Low is still fighting wind shear (dry air), but the Low is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico, in which the environmental conditions become more favorable for a tropical depression to form over the weekend. The NHC has the disturbance at a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours, and an 80% chance over the next 5 days.
This likely won’t develop into a hurricane or tropical storm, so I wouldn’t cancel any plans you may have to the Gulf Coast this weekend, but it will be a wet travel, as the disturbance will throw tropical moisture onto US land.