JAMESTOWN – More clouds than sun will take us through the afternoon out ahead of our next chance for rain and a couple of thunderstorms tonight.
As a Warm front is making its way through the region, that is spiking temps well into the 50s and lower 60s across Western New York. We haven’t seen a high temp at or above 60 since November 6; it’s been awhile. Although there won’t be much sunshine, it’s a great day to get out and enjoy the warmth none the less.
“Bombogenesis” continues to churn away this afternoon with a big train of Gulf moisture on the warm side, producing severe weather to portions of the South and Ohio River Valley and a blizzard in the upper Midwest on the northern, colder side of the storm.
The storm is a textbook classic definition of a “Bomb Cyclone”, outputting some amazing visuals on both the visible satellite and radar reflectivity displays.
The actual center of the storm will pass to our west in the upper Great Lakes but that long train of moisture is heading our way for tonight.
As the system nears, we do expect the winds the come up through the afternoon. The National Weather Service has posted up a Wind Advisory for Chautauqua County, going into effect at 6 AM through 8 PM on Friday.
The winds will likely be the strongest early in the day on Friday, with the overall gustier winds near the Lake Erie Shoreline and the highest hills of the Southern Tier. There, gusts to near or just above 50 MPH are possible.
While the NOAA Storm Prediction Center does have the extreme western portion of Erie County, PA under a less-than-average Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorm convection this afternoon, there is a small chance the SPC may pull that Marginal Risk a bit north and east to clip parts of the Southern Tier for tonight.
While the dynamics and the overall atmospheric instability across Western New York are nothing impressive, the potential does exist for a strong storm or two throughout the overnight that could become enhanced if the storms tap into the stronger wind gusts. There could also be some small hail in these storms as well.
Any severe threat will be very limited in nature. We do not expect an organized severe weather event with the rather weak instability in the upper levels.
Tomorrow, we will start the day very mild; upper 40s to lower 50s for most areas around Western New York. The temp will slide through the 40s and 30s through the day as a Cold front is dragged through the area, likely ending up near 34 or 35 by sundown.
A few scattered rain showers will redevelop by the afternoon Friday, before changing over to snow showers late Friday afternoon and evening as the colder air filters in.
Saturday is the annual “Turn The Chadakoin Green” event in celebration of St. Patricks Day. As you’re heading down to Brooklyn Square in downtown Jamestown, bundle up! Temps will hover in the mid to upper 20s with a couple of snow showers through the morning.
Temps will remain below average until Tuesday of next week when we’ll start to see another warming trend take place. We will be back into the lower 40s by Wednesday of next week with a few rain and showers.
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