Western New York’s climate is warming up. Average annual temperatures in the region have increased by 0.4°F over the last decade, a warming rate slightly below the U.S. average, recent research from SUNY Buffalo State University reveals. And, although it’s safe to say nowhere is totally immune to climate change, western New York’s proximity to Lake Erie and the Niagara River have led to cities like Buffalo and Rochester being hailed as climate refuges: areas that are less likely to experience extreme heat, drought, sea-level rise, and flooding, which makes them superior places to live.
Warmer winters, fewer snow days
In western New York over the last decade, winters have warmed at a rate three times faster than summers, which is likely to be expected in a warming world. Fewer sub-zero days have also meant an increase in winter rain, less snow, reduced snow cover, and earlier spring snowmelt. Snowfall days have also decreased overall. Buffalo, in particular, now has thirteen less snowfall days per year on average than it once did in 1965.
Warmer summers forecast
Although western New York typically enjoys mild summers, temperatures are set to heat up considerably as soon as this year. In Buffalo and Rochester, there’s a 50-60% probability that June and July will be hotter than usual, although how hot exactly isn’t yet known. However, a look at the average annual temperatures can give us something to go on: June has an average temperature of 72 degrees, and July an average of 77.5 degrees, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s weather data from 1991 to 2020.
Warmer temperatures also inevitably raise questions about the impact on home cooling costs. Currently, the average U.S. household spends $326 on average on air-conditioning per year, while heating and cooling systems typically account for around 37% of household energy consumption across New York State. Fortunately, AC efficiency can help lower cooling costs and keep homes comfortable as the temperatures warm up. When AC units are well-maintained, they’re more energy-efficient, which reduces energy bills. AC units should therefore be professionally serviced annually to keep them operating to their fullest potential.
Buffalo and Rochester hailed as “climate refuges”
Yet, despite rising temperatures, residents may be better off in western New York than they would be elsewhere. Scientific models of weather patterns in the Great Lakes Region have identified areas like Buffalo and Rochester as potential “climate havens” less likely to be hit by extreme heat than most other places around the country. Since these cities are somewhat drought resistant and have easy access to bodies of fresh lake water, they’re likely to be attractive places to live as the planet warms. In fact, Buffalo even has the edge over other Great Lakes cities as it’s on the far side of the Great Lakes Basin, which means temperatures there are generally cooler.
Extreme weather events still expected
That’s not to say western New York is immune to climate change, quite the contrary. “What we are expecting to see is more extreme weather, possibly more lake effect snow, more windstorms, flooding, heat waves,” said Professor Holly Buck of the University at Buffalo. According to Buck, no area is truly free from climate risk, and the moniker “climate refuge” is therefore somewhat of a misnomer. Either way, efforts should be made to modify our existing environment in order to better adapt to whatever the future brings. “Buffalo would be a great area for manufacturing in terms of electric vehicles parts, batteries, hydrogen,” Professor Buck said. “We are going to need to build so much stuff to try to transform our systems, and Buffalo could really be at the center of that.”
As Buffalo and Erie County’s population recently increased for the first time in seventy years, the region may already be seeing evidence of its newfound status as a climate refuge. Buffalo city officials have previously stated the city can handle an influx of climate migrants if needed. “Our city was built with an infrastructure 30, 40 years ago that our population would be much larger than it is today,” said Brendan Mehaffy executive director of Buffalo’s Office of Strategic Planning. “So in terms of an initial absorption, it should not really be an issue.”
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