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JAMESTOWN – Showers and thunderstorms will be developing this afternoon ahead of a Cold front passage with the potential a few of those storms could be strong to severe through this evening.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has outlined all of Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania under a standard Slight Risk, a level 2 out of 5, for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. There is also an Enhanced Risk, level 3 out of 5, for fear eastern Allegany County and points east and south.
Storms will fire to our north around 2 to 3 p.m. this afternoon and sag their way southward through the region. High resolution modeling has been indicating the line intensifying as it does so, eventually weakening as they move further to the south. The main severe threat will be over by 7 p.m. this evening with just a few lingering showers or storms.
Should any storms become severe, the primary threats will strong damaging winds, heavy rain, and hail. There could also be an isolated spin-up tornado as well. However, the threat is rather low but not zero.
Thunderstorms will taper off overnight with just a few leftover showers possible. Muggy. Lows 63 in the valleys, 69 at the Lake Erie shoreline.
Friday looks to start mainly dry but as tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Laura starts to influx the region, showers and thunderstorms will become commonplace throughout the afternoon. It will stay quite muggy. Highs 76 to 84.
Tropical-like rain showers and a few storms will continue into Saturday with some heavy rainfall at times which would lead to some localized flooding. Highs in the upper 70’s.
A big shift in the weather pattern will come our way on Sunday bringing in drier and much cooler weather. Highs on Sunday will struggle to reach 70 with a good supply of sunshine.
We’ll stay dry on Monday with mostly sunny skies and a bit milder. Highs in the lower 70’s.
A couple isolated showers will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week but each day is looking mainly dry with partial sunshine. Highs in the mid 70’s.
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