JAMESTOWN – High pressure has moved back in to Western New York leading to warmer temperatures and some nice sunshine before rain makes a return to the area.
Plentiful sunshine with some high thin clouds will take us through the afternoon today with temps in the mid to upper 60’s along the lower elevations and inland areas, down to the upper 50’s near the Lake Erie Shoreline thanks to a west wind.
The majority of the night tonight will be dry but some scattered rain showers will come our way overnight as a responce to an approaching C0ld front. Depending on how much instability we can get in the atmosphere, there may be a few rumbles of thunder by Friday morning.
Showers will continue into the day on Friday but will not be anything too heavy or widespread. Expect on again, off again-type of showers and temps in the lower to mid 60’s.
We are getting better handle on the weekend as models are agreeing more on a likely solution. We have talked about a Cold front that could possibly move through over the weekend holding our temperatures down. Now, the latest guidance is suggesting that Cold front will not actually move through the area instead, a Warm front will march through out of the South.
In response to this, temperatures will soar into the mid to upper 70’s on Sunday with some inland areas possibly flirting with 80. Because this front will pull in warm moist air, the humidity values will also creep up on Sunday as well, leading to a “stick” factor in the air.
The combination of warm Gulf air, a strong May sun and higher humidity values will likely be enough fuel to destabilize the atmosphere and trigger off a few scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. We are not expecting severe weather problems nor any widespread storm activity. There will be plenty of dry time Sunday afternoon with some nice sunshine.
The warm air will last into Monday with a few leftover showers before becoming a bit cooler again on Tuesday. An upper-level High pressure ridge is expected to setup along the southern United States by mid next week, creating a bulge of warm air across the Eastern half of the country.
Signs indicate that some of that warm air will flow into Western New York late next week with a southernly wind flow aloft, possibly giving us some summertime warmth just in time for the Memorial Day weekend.
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