First Defense: Strong To Severe Storm Possible This Afternoon With Tropical-Like Humidity

JAMESTOWN – A strong front approaching Western New York will trigger off showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon with the potential that a few of those storms could be severe.

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center maintains the standard Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the entire region as a potent front will sweep through.

The main timing window for the strongest activity will be from 2 p.m. this afternoon until 5 p.m. this evening. With high resolution mesoscale models showing these storms as fast movers, that will create a threat for damaging winds. While some heavy rainfall is also possible, the quick rate of motion fo these storms will prevent them from causing flash flooding issues but some localized flooding could be a possibility, racially along low-lying areas.

The one main ingredient that could hinder this setup is the cloud cover. We already had some showers and storms that moved across the region this morning. If we can get enough sunshine to peak early this afternoon, that could be just enough to destabilize the air one again and fuel thunderstorm convection.

All of the showers and storms will come to an end tonight with much more comfortable sleeping conditions as the humidity drops.

Friday will be mostly dry with cooler with temps in the lower to mid 70’s. The weekend is looking fantastic with lots of sunshine and acceptable humidity.

As we go into mid next week, a surge of very warm and humid air will infiltrate the region with a southernly wind flow aloft. This will potently create the hottest and stickiest weather so far this summer for Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania .

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