JAMESTOWN – Showers and thunderstorms will flair out ahead of a cold front this afternoon with the potential for some strong storms across the Southern Tier and Northwestern Pennsylvania.
The NOAA Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the region under a low-end Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon. As of the 1 p.m. update to the Day 1 outlook, they have now included a standard Slight Risk (level 2/5), ranging from southeastern Allegany County south and east. This is where the SPC feels the higher chances for thunderstorms that could pack a punch could be.
Thanks to a Lake Erie breeze helping to create a boundary across the immediate shoreline, showers and storms will develop along that boundary mainly inland away from the lakeshore and potentially intensify as they work further east away from the lake boundary.
The in-house computer model data is favoring that exact idea with FutureScan depicting thunderstorms becoming more potent as they work eastward through Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania.
Any thunderstorms that do become strong or severe through the afternoon, the main threats will be gusty winds and heavy rain, but some large hail is possible in the Slight Risk area. The main timing window for this activity should be between 2 p.m. and 7 p.m.
While most everybody will see highs in the mid to upper 70’s, the humidity will still be a big factor through the day. We won’t see the humidity drop until the Cold front moves through later today and the lower lower humidity values will likely remain across the area through the week as High pressure builds in from the midwest.
That High pressure clears us out and brings the return of plentiful sunshine Thursday through Sunday. Rain for now will hold off until next week.
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