First Defense: Damaging Wind Gusts Late Tonight; Wet Snow Possible Early Friday

JAMESTOWN – It might be Halloween but Mother Nature has her own tricks up her sleeve for Western New York through the next 24 or so hours with widespread rain and strong winds later tonight and Friday morning.

The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Warning for all of Western New York, going into effect 8 p.m. tonight and running through 1 p.m. Friday afternoon.

There is also a Wind Advisory for Warren County, Pennsylvania, going into effect at 8 p.m. tonight and running through 10 a.m. Friday morning.

The Lakeshore Flood Watch for Chautauqua County has been upgraded to a Lakeshore Flood Warning, also effective until 1 p.m. Friday afternoon.

Widespread rain will continue through the afternoon with some pockets of heavier rain at times. Areas of patchy fog, mainly along the river valley with the wind gradually picking up through the day and shift more west-southwest. Winds gusts could reach 40 MPH by the end of the day. Highs 60 to 66.

As we head into tonight, the rain will continue during trick or treating hours. While the strongest winds will not come until after the kids are home, wind gusts could still be up to 40 MPH.

As a deep Low track northwest of the region, the winds will really start to come up and become their strongest after midnight. Most model guidance has been indicating gusts at or just above 60 MPH near the Lake Erie Shoreline overnight, with gusts 45 to 55 MPH inland.

With that said, a couple outlying models we’ve examined have been bringing even stronger gusts to possibly near 70 MPH across the region but due to the fact that all the other models are not in agreement with that idea, we will still keep our projected peak gusts in the 45 to 60 MPH bracket.

Winds could still be gusty in the early morning hours on Friday, with the winds diminishing through the day. As colder air wraps back around the departing Low, some wet snow showers are possible across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier Friday morning, before mixing with rain showers for the afternoon.

While there could be a light coating, we’re thinking the snow will be a little bit too wet to lead to any real accumulation. Never the less, this will likely end up being the first snow flakes of the season for some around the region. Highs hovering near 40.

Rain and snow showers will continue both Saturday and Sunday with highs in upper 30’s to lower 40s. Partial sunshine will come our way on Monday before another shot of wintry mix returns for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures below average in the mid to upper 40’s.

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