First Defense: Heavy Snow Later Today, Minor Icing By The Morning; Record Cold Likely

JAMESTOWN – Weather conditions will deteriorate throughout the afternoon with heavy snow starting up this afternoon with some pockets of sleet and freezing rain likely by morning, leading to some slick roadways. A plowable snow will pile up across the western-most areas by tomorrow afternoon.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of Western New York, which is in effect now and be running through 6 a.m. Tuesday morning.

The Winter Storm Warning for Erie and Crawford Counties in Pennsylvania will run until 1 p.m Tuesday afternoon, while the Winter Weather Advisory for Warren County, PA will run until 7 a.m.

Widespread snow will begin to pick up in intensity throughout the afternoon as a deep Low pressure area passes east of the area. Within the heavier bands, snowfall rates could reach a half inch to once inch per hour at times through tonight.

Areas south and east near the New York/Pennsylvania line will see some sleet and freezing rain mixing in as you get closer towards the center of the storm.

As the widespread snow tapers west to east overnight as the Low track through New York State into New England, the winds will shift and drag colder air across Lake Erie and generate a few limited lake effect snow bands, lasting through Tuesday.

We are expecting around 6 to 8 inches across the lower elevations with upwards to 7 to 9 inches along the higher hills of the Southern Tier. With some of the lake effect, that could push some totals up to 10 inches in localized nature.

The overall totals will be lower in places that see the sleet and freezing rain, where totals there will range betters 2 to 4 and 3 to 6 inches.

Ice accumulations will range a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of inch. While accumulations of that nature will not cause major problems in terms of icing and damage, that could make untreated roadways a bit more slick by the morning commute.

Behind this, it turns much colder over the next couple of days. We are projecting lower to mid 20’s for daytime highs on Tuesday, which will likely set new record low maximum highs. The record low max for Jamestown on Tuesday is 31, set in 1982.

We will also have a good chance of breaking record low temperatures across the region Wednesday morning. The record Low for the City of Jamestown is 17, set in 1961.

With lows down into the teens, wind chill values Wednesday morning could drop into the single digits for some areas.

Temperatures will remain below average through the week with a slight rebound on Sunday with highs in the mid 40’s.

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